Posts Tagged ‘money’

Poor math skills, the reason for the Great Recession

Friday, February 6th, 2009

In high school it's all the rage for whiny students to ask their math teachers, "What good is math anyway?  When will we ever use it?"

Well, suppose the CEOs of America's largest banks (Bank of America, Lehman Brothers, CitiBank, etc.) had paid a bit more attention in their statistics courses.   Had they done so, they might not have asked to lower capital requirements because their "mathematical models" did a better job at predicting borrower default rates and thus decreased overall risk.

But not only that, suppose the investors in the banks (whose money is all but gone) had understood that estimating the risk of catastrophic loss with a Gaussian distribution is not only difficult, but extremely prone to error.  If their math was a bit more rigorous might they have seen the risk and failed to invest?

But worst of all.  The SEC, the FDIC and several other regulatory agencies including the Federal Reserve should have known that loaning out 30 times what the banks had in capital reserve to traditionally high risk borrowers was not just mathematically potentially catastrophic, but the likelihood of a systemwide crash should converge to 100% over time given such high risk.

It doesn't really take a mathematician to understand some of the math.  With any real literacy in Math or Statistics one would have quickly seen the flaw in the plan to entrust billions of dollars of investments to Gaussian models in the hands of bankers.

Kill-a-watt

Wednesday, February 4th, 2009

Greenies are known for being penny pinchers and energy misers.  But how to go about it in a scientific way?  And can you even really save that much money/energy consumption?

Recently I purchased a Kill-a-watt (~$20 on Amazon.com).  The kill-a-watt is a simple device that plugs into the wall.  To measure your energy usage, you simply plug in the appliance or a power strip with several appliances.  It has an LCD and several functions to help you monitor your device(s) energy usage... both when they are on and when they are off.

But when my coffee maker is off, it's off right?

No!

Surprisingly (to me at least) most modern appliances still consume a fair bit of electricity when turned off!  Commonly this phenomenon is known as "Vampire" electronics.

So how much money will I be saving by utilizing my kill-a-watt and a trusty ol' on/off power strip?

My work desk includes the following items:

  • speakers - 25 watts on
  • laptop - 20 watts on, 1 watt off
  • cable modem and wireless router - 25 watts on
  • Xbox - 90 watts on , 1 watts off
  • Monitor - 30 watts on, 1 watts off
  • Desk aggregate consumption during work hours (while not playing video games) - 100 watts
  • Desk aggregate (laptop, Xbox and monitor off) - 50 watts !

Summing up, I can see that for the 16 hours a day that I don't use my desk, it's still drawing 50 watts.  Over 1 year's time this consumes $33.28 of electricity.  Call me a penny pincher but by using a power strip for the whole system, and spending the 2 seconds per day to turn the strip on and off I can squeeze out just a little bit of savings (making the equivalent of $230/hour... just to flip a switch on and off).

I can't wait to find more ways to kill my watts!

Greentheo's plan for economic recovery

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

It all seems so overwhelming.  The economy is a sinking ship.  Everyone is losing their job so it seems.  We're all going to be poor!  And to top it off, Democrats and Republicans can only agree that Billions (800 of them) must be spent in order to save us.

We all know that borrowing more money (to solve a problem caused by borrowing too much money) wont work and neither will printing money.  Long term both solutions require higher taxes on our children and increased devaluation of our savings.  That is, if we are lucky enough to have savings!

But we're not helpless!  That's right!  You the average citizen can help save the country even while Senators and Presidents are busy trying to ruin us as quickly as possible.

  1. Refuse to let the news affect your well being.  Keep up your productivity, creativity and hard work.  Keep investing, saving for the future, learning and above all spending time doing things you love with people you love.  If you become part of a negative statistic, work hard to turn it into a positive one!
  2. Pay off your debts and refuse to live a high risk[1] lifestyle by purchasing from a surplus and not a deficit.  Being debt free not only gives you a 10-20% discount on everything you buy (no debt = no interest payment), but also lowers your interest rate on things you might consider going into debt for in the long term, like a house.
  3. When you buy, buy local.  Money spent in the local economy has a much higher chance of coming back to you.
  4. Repair, don't upgrade.  If you want to stimulate the economy, the best way to do so is through wages.  When a product, like repairs,  consists mostly of repairs it enters the economy (especially the local economy) much more quickly.   Repairs are not only labor intensive, but also save money for you in the long term.
  5. Donate to charities.  Giving frees you up from the focus on getting more.  If you aren't focused on more, you may start to be focused on actual productive activities.  And besides, charities are a great way to release money into the economy... they have no problem spending it on the services that stimulate an economy the most.
  6. Give your time to folks with special needs, mental health issues or just plain disabled people.  Mental health issues not only impact 1 person's life but 100's of other's who help care for them.  Special needs are a fact of the world.  Helping them out is to give them the ability to reallocate their resources elsewhere.
  7. Rake an old person's lawn, or help them fix their house.  It's extremely expensive to live in a retirement center and most older people can't afford it.  What if instead of giving all their money to a retirement home an older person could spend it elsewhere in the economy?
  8. Help prevent substance abuse.  Have a young friend who is soon to be hooked on drugs?  Hundreds of people are negatively impacted financially and emotionally by 1 substance abuser.  Not to mention that it's hard to be productive when you're wasted.  Do your part and help others to say no.
  9. Repair your marriage.  Divorce and relational hardship are a huge drag on an economy.  Not only does it cost money in legal fees, but it costs productivity, creativity, energy and emotional pain for years in both you, your ex-spouse and your children.
  10. Participate in friendships.  From carpooling, and networking to splitting vacation costs, free entertainment and above all... joy ... friendships are a must for economic stimulation.

Above all, keep in mind that economics is not about the exchange and getting of money, it's the exchange and getting of things that we desire and need.  Not all things can be purchased!  So let's get out there and stimulate our economy in whatever way we can!

  1. debt is extremely risky because of the default effect.  When just a few payments are missed the interest rates default to the maximum allowable rate drastically increasing the risk of bankruptcy []

Linux = Silvio Gessel in Action

Monday, December 15th, 2008

Silvio Gesell was an economist concerned with the prosperity of the working class. Unlike Karl Marx,  Gesell did not believe in taking back the capital resources from the rich by force. Gesell instead believed that the capital of the wealthy was only valuable because it was in limited supply.  Therefore empowering the working masses could be achieved simply by producing surplus capital.  Surplus capital drives down the demand for capital, and as demand drops so too does price.  As price drops and demand drops, interest and rent on that capital drops.

For instance, rent is high on houses because there are a limited supply of houses.  If one can control a large amount of houses in a limited supply market, he can set the price for rent as he wishes.  Karl Marx proposed to take the property back from the landlords and return it to the people.  In Eastern Europe and Russia this socialization of capital was achieved, but with disastrous consequences: nobody aspired to be a landlord; nobody wanted to take responsibility for the upkeep and maintenance of housing.  When profit is decoupled from individual

Under Gesell, the better solution would be for the working class to unite, pitch in, and build a hundred new houses such that the overall rent market either could not be controlled or had excess capacity[1].  In a housing glut rent drops to zero, freeing up a significant portion of worker's wages to be used elsewhere.

Money can also be considered capital.  Under Karl Marx it is the job of the government is to redistribute wealth from the rich to the poor.  Money in this case is seen as a limited supply good.  Under Gesell, no redistribution is necessary.  The government simply taxes or devalues money (not wealth) periodically so that it is not worth hoarding.   Money must be spent or invested in order to obtain value.  Under Gesell the supply for money in circulation increases drastically, and interest rates must go down.  As interest rates go down general prosperity increases and the divide between the rich and poor decreases.

At the beginning of the 21st century we are now facing many challenges similar to the beginning of the 20th century.  Capital is in short supply, lending rates are low, and there is a sense of general panic in the market.  But, there is a bright spot in the economy which can't be ignored: open source.

In the 1970s and 80s as computer programming was becoming more and more popular and accessible to the masses, a movement was started to provide hobbyists, academics, and enthusiasts with free software.  These innovative thinkers were responding to a perceived threat by the capitalists to their hobby and passion: computer programming.

At the time, a UNIX operating system computer cost around $10,000.  Hardly anybody could afford to buy a personal computer.  And so the free software foundation was started.  Today the largest legacy of the free software foundation is GNU.  At the same time Linus Torvalds created a UNIX like operating system which is now known as Linux.  Linux and the GNU software were given away completely free with the only restriction being that one could not capitalize on the it[2].  The price of the same system running Linux dropped by 80% to an affordable $2,000.  Today more than 12% of the commercial server market runs Linux, while an undoubtedly large percent of the non-commerical server market prefers Linux to the main alternative Windows Server.[3].

Over the last 20 years Linux has attracted millions of computer programmer-hours... all for free.  Many of these programmers collect a wage from installing and maintaining the software for a client, but they don't make capital gains on the software.   This has allowed hundreds of thousands of workers to make a fair wage.[4]

In contrast Microsoft has kept their software closed, and therefore capitalized.  While its thousands of workers do make a fair wage, the real gain of Microsoft resides in the 1% of the company that benefits from the capitalization.  Furthermore the cost of Microsoft Windows is high enough that it excludes potential participants in a business that requires numerous licenses of Microsoft Windows from entering the market.

Aside from Linux, there are thousands if not millions of open-source software packages providing many of the daily services that an increasing number of people use.

The open source movement is not limited to software.  Imagine an economy where even jobs like engineering, teaching, construction, architecture and even restauranteering are open source, where those who most want to participate can contribute in the ways in which they are most skilled.  20 years ago few thought Open Source software engineering could ever be a profitable business model for anybody.  Now a very large portion of businesses rely on the Open Source software model to make it at all.

Open Sourcing and decapitalizing large pieces of our economy would truly be democracy in action at an unprecedented scale and it would provide prosperity such as we've not seen before for the average and lower class Americans whos main source of income is wages.

Go Linux!

  1. it's not that they give the houses away necessarily but perhaps they build them Amish style, a prerequisite for living in the community is to help raise barns or houses []
  2. without making significant modifications of their own []
  3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linux#Market_share_and_uptake []
  4. It should be noted that some Linux companies do make a capital gain on their modified versions of Linux, though the free price of a nearly equivalent Linux package keeps their overall profit down. []

Fed creates more money from thin air, gives to govt.

Monday, December 1st, 2008

Ben Bernanke says that the Federal Reserve is thinking about using the 800 billion they just committed to releasing into the system to buy some Govt. Treasury bonds.   The idea is supposedly to get liquidity rolling.  Liquidity in markets is good in that it keeps the prices of assets "liquid"... which generally implies that there is enough continous demand for an assett that anyone can get in or out at any time (without serious price drops or increases).

The thought here must be that by buying US treasuries the price of the treasuries will rise and investors in US bonds will be able to get in or out when they want, confidence will increase...spurring more investment and liquidty in treasuries and in the market in general ... and thus economic recovery.

The national govt. currently runs at a deficit and so without bonds, the insufficient funds provided by taxpayers would not be able to keep the federal govt. operating.

Ultimately, the purpose of promoting liquidity in the markets is for inspiring consumer and investor confidence, which is good.

But....  the Federal Reserve is supposedly the monetary branch of the Federal Govt.  Though it's technically a private bank, it is also overseen by US govt. appointees. In this light a policy of using the Federal Reserve to buy US Treasuries can only be compared to one thing:

Forgery.

Don't have enough money?  Why not make some more?  It's illegal for us to do because let's face it, if everyone could just make money and use it to buy goods it wouldn't be worth anything.  But if only one or two people could do it in a way that doesn't seriously rock the boat for everybody then they'd get a nice free ride at the expense of everyone else.

The part that I don't undertand is that in the long term each US treasury bond is paid back with interest.  So the Federal Reserve creates money and then buys Treasury bonds with it giving the govt. a 3% loan for 20 years.   In 20 years the Govt. will have paid back the face value of the loan + 80% of the face value of the bond in interest.  In this case the interest goes to the Federal Reserve.  What does the Federal Reserve do with that interest and principal?  Unless it takes it out of the system (effectively destroying it) then significant inflation will occur.  Same, for the principal, if it isn't taken out of the system then again inflation occurs.  But the interest and the principal the govt. pays back is actually US taxpayer money... a tax paid by future US. citizens.

Seems unfair to make our children pay for our lack of oversight, responsibility, and greed.

Bailout + more bailout

Friday, November 28th, 2008

The Federal Reserve announced yesterday that it was going to drop another 800 billion dollars of liquidity in the markets.  $200 billion will be going to back up small businesses, while nearly $600 billion will be going directly to purchase bad mortgage and assett backed securities.

This is in addition to the $700 billion bailout package that congress recently decided to bless the financial moguls with who both profited enormously from subprime lending and have likely caused a nationwide depression from their irresponsible lending practices.

The Auto industry figures that while they're handing out billions of our money over in Washington they ought to get a piece of the TARP as well.  They probably will.

But where does all the billions of dollars come from?  For congress the money comes from taxpayers and also from loans.  In order to fund the extensive bailouts congress will be borrowing from 3 places:

1. Social Security - Ever since Ronald Reagan got creative with the budget (sort of like how Enron got creative with the budget) it's been a favorite practice of congress and the Presidents to raid the Social Security trust fund an write an IOU instead of cutting their bloated and inefficient programs.  If you are less than 30 years old right now, you will likely not see any of your Social Security money when you retire.
2. Foreigners - The US govt. borrows trillions from China and many of the countries we've collectiviely labeled 'barbarians' or in today's terminology: terrorists, communists totalitarians or people otherwise opposed to freedom.
3. You and Me - In order to finance the massive debt snowball that congress is building, the US must pay hundreds of billions of dollars per year on the interest payment of the debt.  This comes straight from the wallets of the US citizens.  As we borrow more, this portion of the budget (and our taxes) will only increase.  The US debt will be seen as more and more risky and eventually the usurious interest rates we've been giving to the poor nations of the world will be given to us.

But what about the Federal Reserve?  With no power to tax, the Federal Reserve has decided to help out the economy by buying up toxic assets (in order to keep prices artificially high) with money created out of thin air.  Technically the Federal Reserve is not taxing the American People.  But unless the money dumped into the system is eventually taken out of the system (via higher interest rates) significant inflation will occur.

Significant inflation is like a hidden tax on the working citizens who see proportionally decreased wages while those with large amounts of capital are able to consolidate and amplify their holdings with cheaper loans[1].

The Federal Reserve policy to release money into the system via low interest loans enables those wealthy enough to qualify for the loans (big business and the like) to purchase at today's price with a low interest rate what will cost significantly more in the future due to the inflated supply and decreased value of money.

There's no doubt about it, the economy is quickly heading towards two outcomes:

1. A short term significant crash - 1930's style depression is more and more likely (I still don't quite believe it will happen, but...).
2. A long term two tier society made of a small number of ultra wealthy 20th century style robber barons, and a mass of working poor who have no health insurance, inadequate food quality and supply and are generally in debt for the remainder of their lives.

What can solve the financial and impending socio-economic crisis? Well the following would be a start.

1. A Hoarding tax.  Real wealth[2] should not be taxed, but money should be.  Controlling the flow of money is like controlling the free market.  All economic depressions come from a market in which money, and therefore trade, is locked up.  Usually this this is the direct result of the irresponsible behaviour of the money owners.  If we want the most amount of people to prosper we have to make it difficult for the money owners to control the free market via the control of the money supply.
2. Debt free living, debt free government.  Short term this always hurts.  Long term, a life lived debt free is a life lived with decreased financial risk, increased freedom and increased prosperity.  Imagine if everything you bought was 25-50% off.  What could you do with all your savings? Living debt free (100% debt free) is like getting a massive discount on everything.
3. A return to classical (liberal arts) education.  The more you know, the more you have the ability to prosper.  Knowing how the world, how nature and your fellow man works gives you the ability to produce real wealth.  This means that along with specialization we must begin to really teach things like logic, philosophy, sociology/psychology, economics, history, literature and most importantly mathematics[3] to everyone.
4. Socialized health care.  The number one reason people don't start a small business is the financial risk.  Most of the financial risk comes from the loss of health care benefits.  Medical care is the number one cause of bankruptcy.  Eliminate that risk by socializing it.  It certainly wont cost near as much to bailout ailing Americans as it will to bailout the ailing banking business.  More small businesses means more prosperity, independence and freedom.

  1. when money is dumped in the system it usually done via inexpensive loans form the central (Federal Reserve) bank []
  2. like technology, innovation, houses etc. []
  3. physical science like Chemistry, Biology and Physics are good too... but secondary to the classical foundations []

The miracle of Worgl

Friday, November 21st, 2008

“To all whom it may concern ! Sluggishly circulating money has provoked an unprecedented trade depression and plunged millions into utter misery. Economically considered, the destruction of the world has started. - It is time, through determined and intelligent action, to endeavour to arrest the downward plunge of the trade machine and thereby to save mankind from fratricidal wars, chaos, and dissolution. Human beings live by exchanging their services. Sluggish circulation has largely stopped this exchange and thrown millions of willing workers out of employment. - We must therefore revive this exchange of services and by its means bring the unemployed back to the ranks of the producers. Such is the object of the labour certificate issued by the market town of Wörgl : it softens sufferings dread; it offers work and bread.”-Inscription on the back of Worgl alternative money (1932)

As the stock market crashes and economic turmoil seems all but inevitable many have been thinking back to the days of the great depression.  Alas, it seems we little people can do nothing but wait on the Federal Government, and it's official monetary policy producer and the privately owned and operated Federal Reserve to rescue us from the sins of the fat cats on Wall Street.

We might be waiting until a certain nether world freezes over.

Back in 1931-32 the small town of Worgl, Austria was suffering from the result of the 1929 stock crash.  There was no investment, no spending, 30% unemployment and civil unrest (When Hitler came through 5 years later and annexed them, they greeted him as an economic savior).

But the little town of Worgl had a creative Mayor.  The Mayor of Worgl was not highly educated, but he had read enough of economist Silvio Gesell to understand that his desire for the prosperity of the working class was not dependent on the wealthy (trickle down economics) nor was it dependent on the ideals of Marx, who advocated taking back the means of production from the wealthy by force.

Instead, as Gesell theorized, the solution lay in a more efficient and effective money system.  As has been previously blogged here at greentheo, money is useless as a medium of exchange if it does not flow around a society.  Gesell makes it painfully clear that money is not wealth.  Instead, Gesell promoted the idea that wealth and prosperity is the ability to obtain real goods via trade.  If, then, we want the average world citizen to have increased prosperity we need not take wealth by force, we simply need to decrease the ability for large amounts of money to have an advantage in trade over smaller amounts.

If money itself loses value over time, just like the underlying goods that it can purchase do, then it will become a better medium of exchange and take away the advantage of holding large amounts of it.

Money properly understood is a means to an end, not an end in itself.

So as Worgl struggled to maintain roads, and feed the starving poor the Mayor of this small town decided to give Gesell's ideas a try.  He devised a new money system in which a 1% tax on money had to be paid each month (not a tax on wealth, but a tax on money).  The money was passed into circulation via wages for city employees and was required to be accepted as legal tender by all town business.

It worked so quickly (within 3 days) that the Mayor began to be suspicious of fraud, but in reality it was a smashing success.  Soon income taxes (taxes on wealth) were being paid ahead of time (to avoid the 1% tax on money).  A new ski jump was built.  Streets were not only maintained but new ones constructed that became the envy of Austria.  The town was at full employment and even forests were being replanted for the purpose tax sheltering (again avoid 1% money tax by investing in something that could be sold in the future for today's price).

Imagine if in today's world we invested in forests and wildlife habitats not because we wished to "do the right thing" but because it was a good investment and a tax shelter.

Worgl's local economy became so successful within the year that many of the neighboring Austrian cities began to adopt the Gesellian "Free-money" as it was known.  Even the French across the border became interested in the new monetary system.  An economic gathering of the minds attracted macro-economists from around the world who came to see the "Miracle of Worgl".

Alas, the short lived joy and prosperity came to an abrupt end.  The central bank of Austria asserted it's monopoly control of the money supply and outlawed alternative currencies (like "Free-money").  After unsuccessfully suing for the right to print their own currency the town of Worgl return back to the national currency.  The roads fell into disrepair and quickly 30% unemployment returned.

5 years later Hitler rolled through on his quest for world domination and millions lost their lives in the battles ensued.

Could a better monetary system have saved countless hours of pain, death and destruction?   Could a better money system stop the crushig poverty experiencd by so many billions in the world?

Don't just take my word for it, think about it yourself.

(This entry mostly paraphrased from[1] )

  1. http://alt-money.tribe.net/thread/70e5eb29-853d-44ca-9faa-b789d1757037 []

Bailout Sleuth

Monday, November 17th, 2008

Since the Federal Reserve and congress don't deem it necessary to disclose who they're giving money out to under the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) Mark Cuban (owner of the Dallas Mavericks basketball) has helped start a new website:

www.bailoutsleuth.com

To keep track of it for them.

Several lawsuits have been filed under the freedom of Information Act and yet the Fed still (even though mandated under law) refuses to disclose which banks they are lending money too.  And it's not just the $700 billion that congress approved a few months ago.  They are apparently also excercising the "right" to give cheap loans to whomever they care to, unless of course you're a regular ol' Joe, then you have to pay prime+bank interest.  Some $2 trillion in unidentified loans has been given out in the last couple of months.

So I guess while the big boys get loans at 0.25% I'm still stuck with a mortgage at nearly 7% and a school loan at about the same.  Where do I sign up for my piece of the TARP?

Welcome to the new era of Robber Baron early 20th century style capitalism, hope it's working out for you.

So you think you're green? Try 10 ultra-green lifestyle changes

Tuesday, September 30th, 2008

So you already by organic food, use compact flourescent lightbulbs and drive a Toyota prius.  Well, I don't want to be a green fundy here but the following is a list of things you might try to become an ultra-green environmentalist.  The following are some realistic and very environmentally friendly ways in which you can get back in touch with nature and help save the planet/whales/lots of cute and furry animals (including ourselves).  Each of these changes will not only help save the earth but will save you some serious green (i.e. cash).

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Nobody can defeat the US militarily...

Monday, September 8th, 2008

Unfortunately they could beat us economically and never have to launch a single missle.

After wildderrick posted his piece on the Freddie Mac / Fannie Mae takeover this comment inspires me:

 We can not be defeated by any country in the world militarily... While it might be safe to say nobody would win either. However, the power of two could single handedly bankrupt or destroy America? This is way to much power to not have some kind of accountability with. They are not even elected or approved by accountable people. This is insane. This should be the greatest wake up call to all Americans.

(more...)