Posts Tagged ‘government’

One Variable Solutions

Tuesday, December 8th, 2009

Recently, a link to a video was sent to me which claimed that the “key to Swiss independence” (and happiness) was their.

  • Compulsory Military service
  • Compulsory sending home of high power rifles with the service men after their duty was over.

Aside from the fact that it seems that the Swiss hold military service to be a facet of citizenship, it is clear that the sender of such a video believes in a 1-variable solution to government policy and national happiness.  Namely that if Americans all had guns then Americans would be more free safe and secure.

It seems that more than anything American political culture is characterized by this love of 1-variable solutions which take on the form, if X policy was put in place, then Y, Z,Q, and T and S problem would also be solved.

For instance:

Conservatives – If everyone had a gun then there would be less violence, more prosperity and therefore less need for public health care options, therefore decreased immigration (both from the fact that they will be shot and because they wont get welfare when they get here), fewer jobs stolen from tax paying citizens, no unions, general happiness.

Liberals – If guns were made illegal then there would be less violence, more prosperity and therefore a publicly fundable health care option, increased legal immigration which would lead to a more diverse society with full employment for all in which workers had more power than capitalists and general happiness.

But the truth is, 1 variable solutions don’t exist in the real world.  The Swiss not only encourage gun ownership, but they also compell military education.  They also have a highly educated population and happen to live in a geographically easily securable location.  They also fund public health care and maintain strict immigration control while taking part in the European Union.  Switzerland borders France and Italy as well… two extremely wealthy and highly educated countries.

There aren’t any easy solutions in a globalized, industrialized society.  Even green energy isn’t as simple as the fact that with less than 4% of the earth’s surface we could power the world… it’s true that that’s all it would take landmass-wise.  But power consumption and production very rarely line up in a way that makes it easy to achieve.  And we surely couldn’t lay down power cables from the Sahara desert to America…

The world is complex, and that’s what makes it both wonderful and miserable.

The Post Capitalist Economy

Thursday, January 29th, 2009

Not every bit of news about the current ‘economic climate’ is all that bad.  Consider the proposition that we are entering a post capitalist economy.  What could be so bad about the empowerment of the average citizen and the downfall of the robber barons that have ruled for so long?  Here’s why I believe the day of the capitalist ruler may be coming to an end (for now at least).

Traditionally there have been 3 costs for doing business:

  1. Research and Development – the cost of developing the first of a new technology or product.  Traditionally, R&D is done by scientists and engineers.  Several prototypes would be created and tested in the real world.  But as computers have gotten cheaper (very nearly free these days), simulations have replaced trial and error experimentation.  It is now possible to run through millions of versions of the product before even a single physical prototype is made.  Advances in statistics, AI, and computer science along with open sourcing and crowd sourcing are quickly dropping the time and cost involved for birthing an idea into the world.
  2. Manufacture/Raw goods – this is the actual cost of the inputs for the product including labor, raw materials, and energy required to shape those raw materials.   Traditionally humans were used in all of the stages of production.  From digging up the coal and metals to chopping down and hewing the trees to pounding the rivets and welding the metal, humans did everything.  But humans are not machines.  Humans are living, thinking and creating beings.  With the advent of cheap energy and increasingly intelligent machinery one man can now do the job of 100 men (probably more).   If we continue our progress towards free energy and intelligent machinery, manufacturing will become virtually free.
  3. Transaction Cost -   the cost of matching up the product with a buyer.  Traditionally this cost has been prohibitive for the average home business / individual producer.  In fact, in order to overcome the high cost of finding a buyer for the widget one had to gather the capital required to first oduce the good at the cheapest price and then to reach the largest audience possible[1]. But the transaction cost is dropping more and more as the tools to reach the exact buyer (e.g. Google) are being developed.  The internet and home PC has quickly been revolutionizing the way buyers and sellers complete their exchange of goods.

Amongst other things the sharp decline in the cost of doing business is the reason why the economy is currently faultering… or rather it is shifting.  It’s faultering for the outdated and outmoded companies that have failed to transition to a faster, more agile and flexible market, a market easier for small businesses to thrive in.

Whereas GMC needs loans of billions to stay afloat, specialty electric car company Tesla has a back order of hundreds of cars.  Whereas Lehman Brothers and AIG are collapsing under their own weight, Paypal, community lending sites and internet banks like ING are thriving.   The New York Times and similar news papers are folding across the nation, but there have never been so many journalists (bloggers are journalists too right?).

Even scientists who have previously been restricted to working only for governments and corporations wealthy enough to afford the hundreds of thousands of dollars of computational and laboratory equipment can start their own enterprise with Amazon’s EC2 and the latest ‘labs on a chip’.  If the business model is correct, the scientist could potentially scale his company over night, especially with services like Amazon’s EC2 computational time sharing service.

It is in this business climate that the behemoths are starting to fall.  They’re not quick enough, and their products are not good enough.  For too long they’ve relied on the muscled advantage that large amounts of capital brought them.  Now as the barriers to entry lower, and more competition arises the only outcome can be cheaper better goods produced exactly for those who want/need them.  In other words, this downfall indicates that we are moving towards a more open and efficient market (the downfall also indicates that massive greed and corruption can in fact bankrupt an industry).

And that’s great news, unless, of course, you are a robber baron!

  1. Seth Godin calls this the ‘average product for the average person’ way of business []

Linux = Silvio Gessel in Action

Monday, December 15th, 2008

Silvio Gesell was an economist concerned with the prosperity of the working class. Unlike Karl Marx,  Gesell did not believe in taking back the capital resources from the rich by force. Gesell instead believed that the capital of the wealthy was only valuable because it was in limited supply.  Therefore empowering the working masses could be achieved simply by producing surplus capital.  Surplus capital drives down the demand for capital, and as demand drops so too does price.  As price drops and demand drops, interest and rent on that capital drops.

For instance, rent is high on houses because there are a limited supply of houses.  If one can control a large amount of houses in a limited supply market, he can set the price for rent as he wishes.  Karl Marx proposed to take the property back from the landlords and return it to the people.  In Eastern Europe and Russia this socialization of capital was achieved, but with disastrous consequences: nobody aspired to be a landlord; nobody wanted to take responsibility for the upkeep and maintenance of housing.  When profit is decoupled from individual

Under Gesell, the better solution would be for the working class to unite, pitch in, and build a hundred new houses such that the overall rent market either could not be controlled or had excess capacity[1].  In a housing glut rent drops to zero, freeing up a significant portion of worker’s wages to be used elsewhere.

Money can also be considered capital.  Under Karl Marx it is the job of the government is to redistribute wealth from the rich to the poor.  Money in this case is seen as a limited supply good.  Under Gesell, no redistribution is necessary.  The government simply taxes or devalues money (not wealth) periodically so that it is not worth hoarding.   Money must be spent or invested in order to obtain value.  Under Gesell the supply for money in circulation increases drastically, and interest rates must go down.  As interest rates go down general prosperity increases and the divide between the rich and poor decreases.

At the beginning of the 21st century we are now facing many challenges similar to the beginning of the 20th century.  Capital is in short supply, lending rates are low, and there is a sense of general panic in the market.  But, there is a bright spot in the economy which can’t be ignored: open source.

In the 1970s and 80s as computer programming was becoming more and more popular and accessible to the masses, a movement was started to provide hobbyists, academics, and enthusiasts with free software.  These innovative thinkers were responding to a perceived threat by the capitalists to their hobby and passion: computer programming.

At the time, a UNIX operating system computer cost around $10,000.  Hardly anybody could afford to buy a personal computer.  And so the free software foundation was started.  Today the largest legacy of the free software foundation is GNU.  At the same time Linus Torvalds created a UNIX like operating system which is now known as Linux.  Linux and the GNU software were given away completely free with the only restriction being that one could not capitalize on the it[2].  The price of the same system running Linux dropped by 80% to an affordable $2,000.  Today more than 12% of the commercial server market runs Linux, while an undoubtedly large percent of the non-commerical server market prefers Linux to the main alternative Windows Server.[3].

Over the last 20 years Linux has attracted millions of computer programmer-hours… all for free.  Many of these programmers collect a wage from installing and maintaining the software for a client, but they don’t make capital gains on the software.   This has allowed hundreds of thousands of workers to make a fair wage.[4]

In contrast Microsoft has kept their software closed, and therefore capitalized.  While its thousands of workers do make a fair wage, the real gain of Microsoft resides in the 1% of the company that benefits from the capitalization.  Furthermore the cost of Microsoft Windows is high enough that it excludes potential participants in a business that requires numerous licenses of Microsoft Windows from entering the market.

Aside from Linux, there are thousands if not millions of open-source software packages providing many of the daily services that an increasing number of people use.

The open source movement is not limited to software.  Imagine an economy where even jobs like engineering, teaching, construction, architecture and even restauranteering are open source, where those who most want to participate can contribute in the ways in which they are most skilled.  20 years ago few thought Open Source software engineering could ever be a profitable business model for anybody.  Now a very large portion of businesses rely on the Open Source software model to make it at all.

Open Sourcing and decapitalizing large pieces of our economy would truly be democracy in action at an unprecedented scale and it would provide prosperity such as we’ve not seen before for the average and lower class Americans whos main source of income is wages.

Go Linux!

  1. it’s not that they give the houses away necessarily but perhaps they build them Amish style, a prerequisite for living in the community is to help raise barns or houses []
  2. without making significant modifications of their own []
  3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linux#Market_share_and_uptake []
  4. It should be noted that some Linux companies do make a capital gain on their modified versions of Linux, though the free price of a nearly equivalent Linux package keeps their overall profit down. []

Federal Reserve and govt hard at work concentrating power into the Hands of the wealthy…part 2

Friday, September 26th, 2008

Awhile back I wrote about how the Federal Reserve is busy concentrating power in the hands of the wealthy.  Then WildDerrick wrote about how the govt. was taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  I responded with a post on how powerful the Federal Reserve really was.

bankers.jpg

Now if you’re a quasi political participant like myself you may or may not have noticed that President Bush recently proposed a bill giving the government the authority to purchase 700 billion USD in subprime mortgage loans from the largest banks which are likely to collapse otherwise.  As I understand it, there will not even be any stipulations on that money.  It is more or less a blank check to the faultering banking industry.

Aside from the fact that such a bailout is plainly and obviously wrong, unfair and unjust it is further evidence that if we don’t watch out the federal government and the federal reserve [which is not part of the government, but is in fact a privately chartered bank) will even further concentrate the wealth of this country into the hands of the ultra-wealthy.

In the most likely scenario a 700 Billion USD buy out of rotten subprime mortgages will play out as follows:

  1. Bad mortgage securities bought by some extension of the govt. in the amount of 700 Billion USD.  The banking industry doesn't learn from their mistakes, and is allowed to continue on without cleaning out the dirty corners of their business[1].  They understand now that risk is spread out amongst the citizens of the US[2] while the financial gains are simply theirs to keep.
  2. A few years later, those securities will be auctioned off on the market.   Managing thousands of homes is not in the interest of the govt, it would simply be too expensive.
  3. The glut of houses for sale will only be able to be purchased in cash as houses at auctions almost always are.
  4. The only ones with large amounts of cash[3] are the ultra-wealthy who will pick up the mortgages and the houses for pennies on the dollar, perhaps as little as 30-50% of what they are really worth.
  5. A few years later those same houses will likely be flipped back around for their true value, albeit less than 2007’s inflated prices.
  6. The wealthiest folks, like Warren Buffet, will have now aggregated even more wealth under their belts.

What can we do about it?  Write to your congressman (yes it’s still possible) and tell him to vote no on this bill.  If he/she votes yes, simply refuse to vote for him in the future.

It’s time we hard working citizens and taxpayers refused to be the risk reducers for the ultra-wealthy.

Links (Thanks Nathan):

Dave Ramsey’s synopsis http://www.daveramsey.com/etc/fed_bailout/economic_cleanup_10887.htmlc

How you can write your senator:  http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm

update:  At today’s T-bill rate of 4.4% (20 years) the total cost of a 700 billion dollar bailout would be about 1.67 trillion USD.  This averages out to be about $16k per household in the US.

  1. as Nathan says, they won’t even have to miss any of their yacht payments []
  2. 700 billion USD = 2k USD per man woman and child in the US, or more about $300,000 per tax payer according to Dave Ramsey []
  3. like Warren Buffet who is one of the few wealthy enough to insure insurance companies against catastrophic loss []