Posts Tagged ‘Federal Reserve’

The Best Part About Working from Home

Thursday, July 9th, 2009

Is it the freedom?

Is it the lack of a commute everyday?

Is it the feeling of saving the planet while being more productive?

Is it being able to take a 15 minute nap after lunch instead of feigning alertness while dying of sleepiness?

Nope... it's being able to play punk rock as loud as you want without wearing headphones!

Poor math skills, the reason for the Great Recession

Friday, February 6th, 2009

In high school it's all the rage for whiny students to ask their math teachers, "What good is math anyway?  When will we ever use it?"

Well, suppose the CEOs of America's largest banks (Bank of America, Lehman Brothers, CitiBank, etc.) had paid a bit more attention in their statistics courses.   Had they done so, they might not have asked to lower capital requirements because their "mathematical models" did a better job at predicting borrower default rates and thus decreased overall risk.

But not only that, suppose the investors in the banks (whose money is all but gone) had understood that estimating the risk of catastrophic loss with a Gaussian distribution is not only difficult, but extremely prone to error.  If their math was a bit more rigorous might they have seen the risk and failed to invest?

But worst of all.  The SEC, the FDIC and several other regulatory agencies including the Federal Reserve should have known that loaning out 30 times what the banks had in capital reserve to traditionally high risk borrowers was not just mathematically potentially catastrophic, but the likelihood of a systemwide crash should converge to 100% over time given such high risk.

It doesn't really take a mathematician to understand some of the math.  With any real literacy in Math or Statistics one would have quickly seen the flaw in the plan to entrust billions of dollars of investments to Gaussian models in the hands of bankers.

A simple answer to our economic woes

Wednesday, October 15th, 2008

A while back a German economist by the name of Silvio Gesell wrote a book called the Natural Economic Order.  This book has received little attention amongst main stream economist but attracts a loyal following amongst intellectuals and otherwise far-out armchair philosophers.

His work gives us a simple answer to many of the economic woes this country has faced in the last 100 years since the creation of the Federal Reserve.  The answer is quite simple...  create money that systematically loses value over time.

silvio_gesell_1895.jpg

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A few articles on the Federal Reserve and the bailout

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008

I've come across a few articles that are well worth reading.

From my brother:
http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/its_the_derivatives.php

Ron Paul's take on the bailout with keypoints drawn out by me:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/09/ron-paul-bailou.html

"This $700 billion bailout will only increase that debt, and increase the amount of money we pay merely to service the interest on that debt. The end result of this is higher taxes on our children and grandchildren, and the full-scale destruction of the dollar."

"As with many other government proposals, the opportunity cost of this bailout goes unmentioned. $700 billion tied up in illiquid assets is $700 billion that is not put to productive use. That amount of money in the private sector could be used to research new technologies, start small businesses that create thousands of jobs, or upgrade vital infrastructure. Instead, that money will be siphoned off into unproductive assets which may burden the government for years to come." 

 And of course a wiki entry on the Federal Reserve Act in case you were interested enough to gain insight into the non-government entity that has the largest influence on our economy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_System#Central_banking_in_the_United_States

Also, note that the same year that the Federal Reserve Act was passed 1913, the 16th amendment was passed and we started legally paying personal income tax.  Previously it was unconstitutional.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Income_tax#Ratification_of_the_Sixteenth_Amendment

I think you might start to see a pattern emerging here.

Federal Reserve and govt hard at work concentrating power into the Hands of the wealthy...part 2

Friday, September 26th, 2008

Awhile back I wrote about how the Federal Reserve is busy concentrating power in the hands of the wealthy.  Then WildDerrick wrote about how the govt. was taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  I responded with a post on how powerful the Federal Reserve really was.

bankers.jpg

Now if you're a quasi political participant like myself you may or may not have noticed that President Bush recently proposed a bill giving the government the authority to purchase 700 billion USD in subprime mortgage loans from the largest banks which are likely to collapse otherwise.  As I understand it, there will not even be any stipulations on that money.  It is more or less a blank check to the faultering banking industry.

Aside from the fact that such a bailout is plainly and obviously wrong, unfair and unjust it is further evidence that if we don't watch out the federal government and the federal reserve [which is not part of the government, but is in fact a privately chartered bank) will even further concentrate the wealth of this country into the hands of the ultra-wealthy.

In the most likely scenario a 700 Billion USD buy out of rotten subprime mortgages will play out as follows:

  1. Bad mortgage securities bought by some extension of the govt. in the amount of 700 Billion USD.  The banking industry doesn't learn from their mistakes, and is allowed to continue on without cleaning out the dirty corners of their business[1].  They understand now that risk is spread out amongst the citizens of the US[2] while the financial gains are simply theirs to keep.
  2. A few years later, those securities will be auctioned off on the market.   Managing thousands of homes is not in the interest of the govt, it would simply be too expensive.
  3. The glut of houses for sale will only be able to be purchased in cash as houses at auctions almost always are.
  4. The only ones with large amounts of cash[3] are the ultra-wealthy who will pick up the mortgages and the houses for pennies on the dollar, perhaps as little as 30-50% of what they are really worth.
  5. A few years later those same houses will likely be flipped back around for their true value, albeit less than 2007's inflated prices.
  6. The wealthiest folks, like Warren Buffet, will have now aggregated even more wealth under their belts.

What can we do about it?  Write to your congressman (yes it's still possible) and tell him to vote no on this bill.  If he/she votes yes, simply refuse to vote for him in the future.

It's time we hard working citizens and taxpayers refused to be the risk reducers for the ultra-wealthy.

Links (Thanks Nathan):

Dave Ramsey's synopsis http://www.daveramsey.com/etc/fed_bailout/economic_cleanup_10887.htmlc

How you can write your senator:  http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm

update:  At today's T-bill rate of 4.4% (20 years) the total cost of a 700 billion dollar bailout would be about 1.67 trillion USD.  This averages out to be about $16k per household in the US.

  1. as Nathan says, they won't even have to miss any of their yacht payments []
  2. 700 billion USD = 2k USD per man woman and child in the US, or more about $300,000 per tax payer according to Dave Ramsey []
  3. like Warren Buffet who is one of the few wealthy enough to insure insurance companies against catastrophic loss []

Nobody can defeat the US militarily...

Monday, September 8th, 2008

Unfortunately they could beat us economically and never have to launch a single missle.

After wildderrick posted his piece on the Freddie Mac / Fannie Mae takeover this comment inspires me:

 We can not be defeated by any country in the world militarily... While it might be safe to say nobody would win either. However, the power of two could single handedly bankrupt or destroy America? This is way to much power to not have some kind of accountability with. They are not even elected or approved by accountable people. This is insane. This should be the greatest wake up call to all Americans.

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